What actually moves Brent and WTI

SPR barrels land on the U.S. Gulf Coast first, so they loosen the Cushing and Gulf balance before they reach waterborne markets. WTI therefore reacts more than Brent, narrowing the spread.

MARKET FACTOR · SPR inventory level and weekly commercial crude stocks reported by the EIA.

Sustained shale output adds light sweet barrels that first clear domestically and then export. Pipeline and dock capacity out of Corpus Christi and Houston decide how much of the discount stays in WTI.

MARKET FACTOR · U.S. crude production, rig count, and Gulf Coast export capacity.

Sanctioned barrels do not usually disappear; they get rerouted onto longer voyages with scarcer shipping and insurance. That hits the waterborne Brent complex hardest and widens Brent over WTI.

MARKET FACTOR · OPEC+ spare capacity, tanker freight rates, and war-risk insurance premiums.

Electrification and efficiency remove gasoline and diesel demand gradually. The effect shows up in refinery runs and crack spreads before it reaches the crude benchmarks, so it moves both grades almost equally.

MARKET FACTOR · Refinery utilization, product crack spreads, and U.S. vehicle fleet turnover.